Dear Friends and Clients,
In October, the Manhattan real estate market had a serious PR problem. In the weeks leading up to the mayoral election, headlines were dominated by predictions of a mass exodus, claims that wealthy residents were leaving for the suburbs, and hand-wringing about the city’s future. The reality, however, tells a very different story.
Manhattan saw 1,054 contracts signed in October, a 38.9% surge from September (which itself was the strongest September in a decade) and 5.3% higher than a year ago. This was the busiest October since 2021, and the strength was evident across the board. Both the sub-$4M market and the $4M+ luxury segment posted significant gains. In fact, during the last two weeks of October alone, the luxury market recorded three straight weeks of 30+ contracts at $4M+, an exceptionally rare occurrence.
Total luxury contract volume for those weeks approached $947 million, the opposite of a market in retreat. It was business as usual as luxury buyers clearly shrugged off the election chatter.
If there were truly a surge of wealthy New Yorkers fleeing the city, we would have seen a flood of high-end listings hit the market. That didn’t happen. Manhattan saw 1,456 total new listings in October, 32% fewer than September and 3.3% fewer than last October. In the $4M+ luxury segment, there were 251 new listings, essentially unchanged from 250 last October. There was no spike, no panic, and no “fleeing to the suburbs.” Buyers were active, supply remained constant, and the market demonstrated confidence rather than fear.
The median PPSF for $4M+ sales Manhattan-wide remained relatively steady, down only 0.1% from September, and down only 4.8% year-over year. But in certain neighborhoods with a higher concentration of luxury inventory, there was actually a marked increase in the PPSF for sales over $4M: Up 15% over last October for the Upper East Side and up 21% for Soho.
Looking ahead, the fundamentals remain strong. Demand is real, and luxury buyers continue to make decisions based on long-term value rather than short-term political noise. With fewer listings entering the market, well-priced properties will continue to attract attention. And while winter may bring buyers more negotiability, the underlying momentum we’ve seen in recent months remains intact.
If you’d like a detailed breakdown specific to your property type or neighborhood, we’re always happy to walk you through the data and discuss what it means for your buying or selling strategy.
Best Wishes,
Collin Bond, Esq. and Boris Fabrikant, Esq.
