Dear Friends and Clients,
November was widely expected to be the month when Manhattan real estate finally felt the effects of political uncertainty, buyer fatigue, and higher-for-longer interest rates. Instead, the market did what it often does best: it cooled seasonally, recalibrated expectations, and kept moving.
Contract activity did pull back from October’s unusually strong pace. After 1,053 contracts were signed in October 2025, November recorded 770. That decline is meaningful, but it needs context. October numbers were the highest since the 2021 boom. November’s slowdown does not signal a reversal, but rather appears to be a return to normal activity after an exceptionally active early fall. Across all market sectors, the median price per square foot increased nearly 5% and days on market dropped by 2.5% month-over-month. Inventory remains constrained, particularly in the sub-$2M market, and buyers are still stepping up when there is value.
The luxury market followed a more nuanced path. Contracts signed at $4M and above declined from 143 in October to 110 in November. Still, luxury accounted for a larger share of total market activity, rising to 14.3% of all signed contracts, compared to 13.6% in October. While overall volume slowed, high-end buyers represented a greater proportion of demand.
Buyer composition in November reinforced the market’s underlying stability. Nearly 90% of deals over $4M were all-cash, sharply reducing sensitivity to interest-rate movement in the luxury segment. Activity also remained highly concentrated by neighborhood. Downtown Manhattan accounted for approximately 28% of all signed contracts in November, followed by the Upper East Side at roughly 20%. Demand remains strongest in neighborhoods that offer scale, privacy, and consistent inventory depth.
Looking ahead to early 2026, conditions favor precision over optimism. Sellers who anchor pricing to recent peak months will struggle to find traction. Sellers who align pricing with current demand and comparable activity should continue to see liquidity. Buyers should expect competition for quality assets and negotiating leverage where properties are misaligned with market realities.
As always, Manhattan is absorbing a lot of noise, from politics to policy debates, without losing its underlying gravitational pull. The city’s housing market is behaving less like a roller coaster and more like a staircase: not consistently smooth, rarely in a straight line, but still trending up.
If you’re curious how these November trends translate to your building, neighborhood, or specific apartment, we would be happy to share a targeted data snapshot and discuss a strategy for 2026.
Best Wishes,
Boris Fabrikant, Esq. and Collin Bond, Esq
