Overall, the residential Manhattan market in July 2025 closely followed seasonal trends, but the averages mask a clear split between the regular market and the luxury sector.
Inventory fell 8.62% from last , which is a significant drop, but matches the inventory trend line we’ve seen for the past two years. Each year, listings peak around 7,500 at the end of May and steadily drop through the summer months, a pattern that now seems to be the post-COVID norm.
The luxury sector in Manhattan, roughly defined as units priced at $4 million and above, is behaving much differently than the non-luxury market. The key driver is interest rates, which resulted in a reversal in the number of cash versus financed transactions. As the pandemic recovery got underway in mid-2021, nearly 60% of Manhattan purchases were financed. Today, 69% of purchases are cash.
The most compelling evidence of the discrepancy is the year-over-year price per square foot (PPSF) data from July resale condo sales. In Manhattan, PPSF jumped 13% for homes over $4 million but only 3% for those under $4 million.
Looking ahead to the rest of 2025, inventory is expected to reach its seasonal low in late August, followed by the typical autumn surge. If demand in the luxury market stays this strong, we could see further price gains at the top end, while the sub-$4M market is more likely to remain stable, with any price growth tied closely to interest rate shifts.
Best Wishes,
Boris Fabrikant, Esq. and Collin Bond, Esq.
